Thursday, September 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300752
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AS GUST OVER 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN SETS THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY VERY SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND AN EVEN COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 60S AS THE COLDER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES C...WHICH IS VERY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKE
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
PROTECTED AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MONDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID WEEK...SLOWLY NUDGING
EAST EACH DAY. THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEAST MO TO SOUTH CNTRL KS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1200Z. GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 30/1400Z AS DAYTIME CONVECTIVE MIXING
INCREASES. WITH LITTLE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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