Saturday, September 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 251739
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE KANSAS AND ARKANSAS BORDERS. UPS
FOG GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CURRENT TEMPS
ARE JUST A LITTLE BELOW AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS. TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS ARE ALSO JUST ABOUT NIL...SO WILL MENTION FOG IN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND MENTION MAINLY VALLEY/LOW LYING AREAS.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSOURI
VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM CAMDENTON TO LEBANON TO WEST PLAINS.

AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA BRINGING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE.

BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
STAY EAST OF THE OZARKS AS A SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010/

FOR THE 25/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM NW MO INTO NORTHERN KS WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING (00Z-04Z). EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID
MS VLY REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM AND SREF PROGGED CEILING/VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES SUPPORT A
MENTION OF IFR OR LOW END MVFR CEILINGS...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z-
09Z...AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE FROM THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAIN. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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