Sunday, September 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270439
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 118 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010/

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT...AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

AN UPPER LOW NEAR KSTL AT MIDDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS BY 12Z MONDAY. LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAST THEY WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE REGION. THE GFS 850MB RH
PROG INDICATES THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER CLOSE TO THE MO/AR LINE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MO FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY CLEARING LATE. A
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF...IF NOT QUITE ALL OF
THE CWFA...EXPECT THAT SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREA LAKES AND LOW LYING TERRAIN.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION
MON...WARMER WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD. PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EDGES SLIGHTLY EAST. A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM LATE IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT THE WESTERN
RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT/SUNDAY. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDWEEK...THEN COOLING SLIGHTLY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM STILL IN THE BOOTHEEL. 00Z SOUNDING HAD A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LEFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND HAVE SEEN
STEADY DECREASE IN STRATUS DECK DURING THE EVENING. EXPECTING MOST
LOCATIONS TO BECOME CLEAR OR SCT AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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