Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 211723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THAT OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN ASSOCIATED COOL AIR MASS CHANGE LATE IN THE
WEEK.

THE PRIMARY JET TRACK WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES SUPPORTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WITH THE MAIN SUPPORTING WAVE PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. AROUND MID WEEK...THE
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH RIDGING FORMING UP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM NORTHWEST FLOW. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A COOLER AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE IN
STORE FOR THE AREA.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE 00Z THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE VFR CEILINGS TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA TERMINALS TOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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