Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 220807
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
ANTICIPATING THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN
OZARKS AND WILL DIE OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO TO THE AREA
OUT OF CANADA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS HOUR REGARDING
THE STORM POSITION AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010/

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF AREA
TERMINALS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A STALLED FRONT. HOWEVER THE
PROGRESS OF AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TUESDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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