Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 211905
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
208 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

DISCUSSION...

IT WAS A FANTASTIC AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE WAS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HELPING TO
INCREASE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE CORN BELT OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. IN RESPONSE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSED OVERHEAD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS DETERMINING IF
CENTRAL MISSOURI WOULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MASS CONVERGENCE WOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF THE OZARKS...CONFINING ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI...EXTENDING INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THEREFORE OTHER
THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION FOR TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CARBON COPIES OF TODAY...AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH AND AWAY
FROM THE OZARKS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST WHILE NO FORESEEABLE
FOCUSING MECHANISM EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. A FEW AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN...HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO STORM ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.

THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO SPECTACULAR OUTDOOR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY.

MODEL INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE FOR THE SUNDAY - MONDAY PERIOD. WE
WILL NEED TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE UNDERSTANDING EXACTLY
WHAT WILL UNFOLD. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED FROM
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS...AS THE GFS NOW INDICATES THE APPROACH OF A
LARGE CUT OFF CYCLONE...THAT SPINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD BRING THE FIRST COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE OZARKS HEADING TOWARD THE FALL 2010 SEASON.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE 00Z THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE VFR CEILINGS TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA TERMINALS TOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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