Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 221753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. REMNANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THIS DOME
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS WE HAVE
SEEN THIS MORNING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
PLAUSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
ANTICIPATING THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN
OZARKS AND WILL DIE OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO TO THE AREA
OUT OF CANADA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS HOUR REGARDING
THE STORM POSITION AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2010/

FOR THE 22/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. PRECIP/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS NEAR A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS MAINTAINED
IN ALL TAFS WITH THE STRONGER SSW-LY FLOW. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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