Thursday, August 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 261914
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
214 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY
FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH MOST OF OUR
AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTHEAST WINDS REMAINED
OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WE WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
VERY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS OVER OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH MORE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS VALID FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THAT TIME.

TERRY
&&

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MED RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND
POSITIONING OF A RATHER LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS CONTINUE
THAT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN RATHER BROAD AND
POSITIVELY TITLED. ENERGY LOOKS TO EJECT ENE FROM THIS TROUGH...UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE...EVENTUALLY FLATTENING THIS FEATURE HEADING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD EDGE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
WILL BE SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AS THE EASTERN RIDGE DOMINATES. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL RIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM...THOUGH THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA ON
WED/THUR...WITH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLOW STEADY MOISTURE
RETURN WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S...MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S
OVER WESTERN ZONES BY MIDWEEK. UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20C 850MB TEMPS
CORRELATE WELL TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WE WILL CONTINUE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TERRY

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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