Saturday, August 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281752
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARDS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AS THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 0.57. A WARMER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING UNDER THE
RIDGE AND THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAYBE POSSIBLE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. BY TUESDAY
MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BRING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE
BRANSON AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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