Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 242258
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A TASTE OF FALL WILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN
AIRMASS TO SPREAD DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ON A
NIGHTLY BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 80S.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN.
DESPITE THIS RETURN FLOW...SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF COAST
REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST...ULTIMATELY MITIGATING ANY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD
IN...WHICH WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WOULD FOLLOW A WARM
AND DRY PATTERN WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A
TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY...BUT THE
COOLER AIR HAS LAGGED BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT BY SEVERAL
HOURS. AS OF 23Z...THIS COOLER AIR WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS SFC TEMPS COOL...SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWER CIGS ARE OVERCOME BY
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNSET.

BY LATE EVENING...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AS WINDS SUBSIDE...WITH
SKC CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN
ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE SOME MARGINALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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