Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 241903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

DISCUSSION...

A TASTE OF FALL WILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN
AIRMASS TO SPREAD DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ON A
NIGHTLY BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 80S.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN.
DESPITE THIS RETURN FLOW...SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF COAST
REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST...ULTIMATELY MITIGATING ANY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD
IN...WHICH WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WOULD FOLLOW A WARM
AND DRY PATTERN WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A
TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE AT SPRINGFIELD IN BROKEN CONDITIONS AT SPRINGFIELD LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI DOMINATED AREA WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING. A SECOND...
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER AND MID LEVEL AIR
MASS IN PLACE EARLY TODAY...THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AS THE COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION...LIFTING AND
COOLING WHAT LITTLE SURFACE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. EXPECT CLEARING
BY DAWN IN ALL AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY BUILD
SOUTHWARD.

COLUCCI/GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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