Monday, August 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 232241
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

IT WAS A WARM AND DRY DAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS WERE TANKING THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DEWS WERE RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. IT'S THIS DRYNESS
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH WITHOUT
PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY
TOMORROW/TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI MAY EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RECEIVING
RAIN...OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. FURTHER WEST IN
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...A STORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP DUE TO
BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT EXISTING IN THIS REGION.

THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON A NIGHTLY BASIS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DEW
POINTS WILL DROP IN RESPONSE TO NORTHEAST WINDS LEADING TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE ISN'T READY TO PACK ITS BAGS JUST YET. IT
BUILDS BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION TOWARD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY BOOSTING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AT BAY. THEREFORE...DEPSITE THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED...HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OUT IN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD FALL APART AS THEY
HIT THE DRIER AIR. COULD SEE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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