Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 250432
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A TASTE OF FALL WILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN
AIRMASS TO SPREAD DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ON A
NIGHTLY BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 80S.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN.
DESPITE THIS RETURN FLOW...SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF COAST
REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST...ULTIMATELY MITIGATING ANY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD
IN...WHICH WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WOULD FOLLOW A WARM
AND DRY PATTERN WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A
TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD INDICATED AROUND 07Z AT JLN TO
AROUND 10Z AT BBG. SHOULD HAVE A LOT OF CLEAR SKY AFTER THAT FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS AS VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MIXING.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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