Sunday, August 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291137
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
EAST COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE
REGION IS SITUATED ON THE WARM SIDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH TODAY AND WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO SPREAD SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO EASTERN MISSOURI
WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA...CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DO NOT SEE THIS ACTIVITY ABLE TO SPREAD
THAT FAR TO THE WEST AND NORTH INTO THE AREA. NOT REALLY ALL THE
EXCITED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES GOING THIS AFTERNOON.

THINK THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN FEEL THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ON
HOW FAR IT CAN PUSH WEST...AS THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL
SLOW THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN. NEVERTHELESS...A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE A TAD BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
NORTH ON MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL STILL GENERALLY BE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY LARGE
AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH WIDE
SPREAD RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED.

BY MID WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE.
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION
FOR THIS TIME IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN SLIDE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/

WEAK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IS PROGGED TO
MOVE UP AND OVER THE EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GULF
MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AS
EVIDENCED ON SATELLITE. THIS WILL MOISTEN UP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE AERODROME
FORECASTS. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z.

GAEDE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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