Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311928
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS FUELED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN MCS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR WESTERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND WILL HELP CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT TOMORROW. ON THURSDAY THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.

KARDELL

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND. MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN
KEEPING THE AREA NESTLED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LENDING
TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA
APPEARS TO BE STRONG FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE OZARKS WILL
REMAIN VFR THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE REGION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO
IMPACT AERODROMES AS EARLY AS 11Z WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE CEILINGS AS CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWER IN HEIGHT.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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