Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010414
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1114 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 712 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TOT HE
NORTHWEST OVER FAR NW MO AND NE KS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX AND SOMEWHAT
VEERING MID LEVEL 500MB WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WILL BUMP UP RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
WILL ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER E-SE BEFORE
FURTHER WEAKENING.

OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST CNTRL MO INTO KS AND OK MAY
ALSO PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROPAGATE NE. DSA

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS FUELED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN MCS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR WESTERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND WILL HELP CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT TOMORROW. ON THURSDAY THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.

KARDELL

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND. MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN
KEEPING THE AREA NESTLED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LENDING
TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA
APPEARS TO BE STRONG FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 01/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...AN AREA OF WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE THE KC METRO AREA
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE OK/SE KS
MAY ALSO TRY TO MOVE INTO THE KJLN AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL TRY TO
ESTIMATE THE ONSET TIME OF ANY PRECIP AS BEST I CAN...BUT BOTH THESE
STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE FIGHTING AN INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. BELIEVE SHRA/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE 08Z-11Z
TIME FRAME AT KSGF/KJLN. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PRECIP...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE CONVECTION. AFTER 16Z...WILL GO PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT
THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WHERE SUFFICIENT SFC
HEATING OCCURS. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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