Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MILD AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US
WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING LAST FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AS
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM 310-315K
SURFACES. MAY STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN
WESTERN CWA CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTING A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S TODAY WHICH WILL APPROACH FREELY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LOW MAY
ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. WITH FAIRLY HIGH
PW VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE WOULD YIELD HEALTHY
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING HOWEVER WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE CWA.

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COULD PUSH INTO NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE
PROBABLE PRECIPITATION TIMING ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL AID
SURFACE FRONT IN PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

FOR THE 31/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
TERRAIN ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR AT KSGF OVERNIGHT.
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH DIRECTIONAL AND
SOME VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR BELOW A WEAK NIGHTTIME INVERSION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MO OZARK PLATEAU...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IN THE KBBG
TAF AFTER 31/1100Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN DIURNAL CUMULUS INITIALLY
DEVELOPS LATE TUE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
(SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TUE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHRA/TSRA TIMING
IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND TIMING...BUT
DID GO AHEAD AND ADD CB/CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD DESIGNATOR AFTER
31/1700Z. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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