Monday, August 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301935
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DRY CANADIAN AIR
MASS SETTLES OVERHEAD.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SURFACE
PRESSURES TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO DROP AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...OVER AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS HEATING DIES OFF AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SIMILAR REGIME OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FURTHER TO THE WEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE TROUGH MOVES STEADILY TO THE
EAST WITH RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE JET TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF OF THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE JET TRACK. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS PRESSURES RISE BEHIND
IT. FLOW WILL THEN TURN OUT OF THE NORTH SPREADING A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
TO LOWER 80S. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE IN STORE AS
WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED LOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS
AGAIN TURN SOUTHERLY.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH A SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
MO THUS FAR THIS MORNING. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY WORK INTO KBBG
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THAT KSGF AND KJLN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. ANTICIPATE SEEING A LOSS OF DIURNAL CU THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF VFR TO PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE OF THIS MORNING.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH LLWS AT KJLN...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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