Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 240747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEALS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEN COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT OF THE PAN HANDLE OF
TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT AND THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS ARE DUE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH
MISSING THE AREA. A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
THIS IS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THE DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOW TEENS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH ACCORDING TO
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER
AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR THIS THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP TO CONTINUE
THE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. RESIDUAL
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com