Monday, August 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 231626
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION AND WESTERN CANADA, WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SUPPRESS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY AND ULTIMATELY AID IN THE TRANSITION TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CANADA...MODELS DRAG THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEEKS END AS A RESULT.

WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT...WILL COME SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER AIR AS A DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT AND BRING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE
FAIRLY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY
OVERHEAD.

THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO REASSERT ITSELF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN IS RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE FORECAST
AREA WEATHER THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WITH LITTLE OR NO ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEING THE ONLY CONCERN TO AVIATION.

COLUCCI/TERRY

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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