Friday, July 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301122
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

A PERSISTENT SMALL CLUSTER THAT FORMED IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST OF STRONGER 850MB WINDS/FLOW HAS CONSOLIDATED A BIT OVER THE
PAST HOUR. SOME DECENT BASIN AVERAGED RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
OVER MORGAN COUNTY...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOVING EAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY NOW.

OTHER SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
CWFA...AGAIN...IN A NW-SE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF
VEERING AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW/JET. 12Z KSGF RAOB
(IN PROGRESS) HAS 17 DEG C DEW POINT AT 850MB...LOTS OF MOISTURE.
CURRENT POP GRIDS LOOK OKAY AND DO NOT PLAN ON ANY SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ATTM. DSA

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

IT WAS A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM NEVADA TO TABLE ROCK LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RECEIVING RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE TROPICAL LIKE
AIR MASS IN PLACE. A DOWNBURST OR TWO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AS ML CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG BY 21Z.

MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE IN THIS
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHTS PERIOD...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY TRACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. AREAS AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...ON DOWN THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR COULD
RECEIVE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AN ORGANIZED EPISODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS...HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA COULD RECEIVE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR
THE OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION COULD ALSO EXIST...PROVIDING POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE
SUMMERTIME HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/
FOR THE 30/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...THE TAFS WILL BE GENERALLY
VFR...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE KSGF/KBBG AREAS AND POINTS EAST.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION CB/VCTS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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