Saturday, July 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010004
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
703 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BORDER. FEEL THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE 925/850 MB FRONT MOVES INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE
FAILED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING FARTHER TO THE NORTH UP TO THIS POINT
AS THE MID LEVEL AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY. SHORT TERM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVELS
ARE QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST...AND THAT PARCELS JUST ABOVE THE
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL REMAIN BUOYANT INTO MID
EVENING. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)...

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WAS
PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE POOLING AND
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO
SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE APPROACH
MAX HEATING FOR THE DAY. MLCAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE ALONG THE FRONT. ONCE WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE HEATING OF
THE DAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALSO BEGIN TO WANE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
TODAY.

GAEDE

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON. THIS COUPLED WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON DEWPOINT VALUES AS SOME AFTERNOON MIXING MAY
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 IF NOT 105 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK.

INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KBBG
AERODROME EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERED THIS WITH A VCTS GROUP...BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREVAILING THUNDER
GROUP THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. REMOVED THE MVFR FOR LATER TONIGHT AS THIS
PATTERN HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO YIELD LIGHT FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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