Monday, July 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260752
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ATTENTION WILL ALSO BE
ON THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY FOR
THE MOST PART REMAINED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO WEAK WIND
FIELDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO NORTH
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
TONIGHT SO EXPECT THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WEAK WIND SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...DUE TO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER AREA TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S
AREA WIDE. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK INTO
THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95
TO 105 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHABLE EACH
AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK LIMITING THE SEVERE RISK.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY ALSO
BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOULD PROVIDE AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010/

FOR THE 26/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER EXISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
CB/VCTS AT BRANSON FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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