Saturday, July 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311929
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)...

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WAS
PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE POOLING AND
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO
SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE APPROACH
MAX HEATING FOR THE DAY. MLCAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE ALONG THE FRONT. ONCE WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE HEATING OF
THE DAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALSO BEGIN TO WANE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
TODAY.

GAEDE

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON. THIS COUPLED WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON DEWPOINT VALUES AS SOME AFTERNOON MIXING MAY
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 IF NOT 105 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK.

INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF BBG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TERMINALS WELL INTO SUNDAY.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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