Friday, July 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301652
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

CUMULUS FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT MIDDAY. CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HAS BEEN
FOCUSED FROM NORTHERN INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WEAK STALLED FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST 850 MB
CONVERGENCE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MINOR MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITHIN AXIS OF
BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE APPROACH OF THE
MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO ADD SOME SUPPORT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BUT RULED OUT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE A BIT LOWER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
LIKELY TOP 100 IN THIS AREA AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

IT WAS A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM NEVADA TO TABLE ROCK LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RECEIVING RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE TROPICAL LIKE
AIR MASS IN PLACE. A DOWNBURST OR TWO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AS ML CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG BY 21Z.

MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE IN THIS
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHTS PERIOD...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY TRACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. AREAS AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...ON DOWN THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR COULD
RECEIVE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AN ORGANIZED EPISODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS...HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA COULD RECEIVE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR
THE OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION COULD ALSO EXIST...PROVIDING POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE
SUMMERTIME HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS
AT SGF AND BBG. LIGHT MORNING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE
THE VERY HIGH LEVELS OF SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT.

STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS UNDER VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EASTERN OZARKS AND MAY
PROPAGATE AS FAR WEST AS SGF.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-
101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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