Thursday, July 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291938
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010/

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAD STALLED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TODAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND OSAGE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST
AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WITH ONLY
OUTSIDE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WEAK IMPULSES
RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL IMPACT THE OSAGE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 105. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HOTTER TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 WILL
BE COMMON AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED
IN THE COMING DAYS.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SCT RA/TSRA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE JUST INDICATED VCTS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
UNFOCUSED IN NATURE. SHOULD TSRA MOVE OVER AN AIRFIELD
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SOME INDICATION
RIGHT NOW THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX COULD FORM OVER
NEBRASKA/IOWA AND DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF TSRA
OVERNIGHT ATTM. OTHER POSSIBLE ISSUE OVERNIGHT COULD BE MVFR
HZ/BR...ESPECIALLY AT ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES PRECIPITATION TODAY.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IT TO LATER SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE THIS
POSSIBILITY.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
CASSVILLE LINE.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

$$

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