Sunday, July 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 251743 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1218 PM CDT/

GOING FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK TODAY...WITH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINING THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44 HAS LIFTED INTO A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FORMING...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT NOON GENERALLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER SOUTH OF
THE CLOUD COVER. SPC/RUC MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES THAT 500-1000
J/K OF MLCAPE IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND
SHORT TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VALUES COULD APPROACH 2000
J/K BY 21Z-00Z. AFOREMENTIONED HEATING BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF MLCIN IS ABLE TO
SUFFICIENTLY ERODE. DESPITE VERY WEAK SHEAR...MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES FORM. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THAT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS COULD PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT
AS WELL.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST POINTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO
SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SGF/JLN OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR UP RATHER QUICKLY AT THE ONSET OF THE 12Z TAFS...BUT HAVE
HELD ON TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AT JLN.
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND WILL JUST GO WITH CB WORDING FOR NOW.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

LINDENBERG

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND THEN AGAIN EACH DAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AND AFFECTED THE AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS CONTINUING TO
DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING...AS JUST A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS
ARE LEFT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH ALL
THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND CONTINUES TO STEADILY PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH. THE TRUE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AS IT IS JUST STARTING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. MODERATE
INSATIABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE HAIL RISK. THEREFORE...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

WITH THE WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING
THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH
THE LOST OF DAY TIME HEATING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTH AND WILL RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE
STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE NORTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INCREASED GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE LINGERING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAY RESULT IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CHANGING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT
THE STORM TRACK MAY SHIFT BACK OVER THE REGION PROVIDING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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