Saturday, July 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 242006
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FRONT...NOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WHERE IT DECIDES TO END UP. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CIRCULATION LEFT
FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OZARKS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE 4000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF. THE 18Z
SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD DOES INDICATE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY
OF A HIGH WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THOUGH THE HAIL
RISK REMAINS LIMITED WITH A FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING OVER 16KFT.
SO STILL THINKING THAT THE GREATEST RISK FROM STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS WIND GUSTS OVER 60MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY WENT UP ABOUT 0.10 INCHES FROM
THE 12Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT THAT STORMS WOULD BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THIS WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE PAST WEEK. THE POTENTIAL
OF RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TO START THE WEEK MOVING
THE OZARKS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARDS TO THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE. THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER HIGH AND
WANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD AT THE
VERY LEAST ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE EXTENDED MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT
IN THE FUTURE. BEFORE THIS NEXT FRONT WOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...RETURNING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100 DEGREES TO
THE AREA BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...SO WENT WITH PREVAILING CB AND VCTS GROUPS AT KJLN AND
KSGF. WENT WITH JUST PREVAILING CB AT KBBG WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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