Friday, July 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71...

DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM NEVADA TO TABLE ROCK LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RECEIVING RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS
IN PLACE. A DOWNBURST OR TWO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS ML
CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG BY 21Z.

MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE IN THIS
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHTS PERIOD...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY TRACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. AREAS AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...ON DOWN THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR COULD
RECEIVE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AN ORGANIZED EPISODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS...HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA COULD RECEIVE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR
THE OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION COULD ALSO EXIST...PROVIDING POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE
SUMMERTIME HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WITH PROBABILITIES OF A THUNDERSTORM AT OR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...WILL NOT CARRY CB MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAY
ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT
FOG. KEPT ALL TAF SITES IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOT DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH IN A SIMILAR REGIME THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT WARRANTS ONLY A PREVAILING CB
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ066-077-088-
093-101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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