Friday, July 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010/

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAD STALLED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TODAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND OSAGE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST
AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WITH ONLY
OUTSIDE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WEAK IMPULSES
RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL IMPACT THE OSAGE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 105. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HOTTER TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 WILL
BE COMMON AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED
IN THE COMING DAYS.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WITH PROBABILITIES OF A THUNDERSTORM AT OR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...WILL NOT CARRY CB MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAY
ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT
FOG. KEPT ALL TAF SITES IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOT DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH IN A SIMILAR REGIME THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT WARRANTS ONLY A PREVAILING CB
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ066-077-088-
093-101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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