Thursday, July 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE RETURNING HEAT
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SOME WANING CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NEAR
COLUMBIA TO NEAR LEXINGTON. NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IS FAIRLY WEAK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

FORECAST...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA TODAY...SETTING UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. SEVERE
STORMS NOT EXPECTED EITHER WITH WEAK SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE
CWA. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AGAIN DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH READINGS AROUND 90 TO 93 ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND THERMAL CAP
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY AND PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AT FORECASTED HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 107 HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND MAY BE NEEDING SOME HEAT HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

LIGHT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
LIGHT FOG/HAZE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PREVAILING CB FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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