Monday, July 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260458
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010/

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WAS ON
POPS/CONVECTION. NOT AN EASY FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP PRESENT. STILL MAY SEE A FEW
STORMS GO UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AM NOT
SEEING ANY MECHANISMS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF BY 03Z.

PROSPECTS LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
PULSE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS OR
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. WHAT IS LEFT OF THAT SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO MOVE/REDEVELOP NORTH AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY. PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...WITH A PARTIAL
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE. WITH THAT FRONT
REFORMING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY TO REACH
OVER MOST AREAS...WITH THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO BOOT. THEREFORE
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON A DAILY BASIS OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL A CONCERN. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF/SREF
FOR LOWS.

BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS REGIME WOULD FAVOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
ALSO ADVERTISING SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ALL POINTS TO A
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. TOUGH TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE OZARKS. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP...THINK THERE IS A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE THAT THIS FRONT GETS
DOWN THIS FAR AND PROVIDES AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH BACK INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AROUND MIDWEEK...WITH HEAT INDICES
PUSHING OR EXCEEDING 100. AGAIN WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010/

FOR THE 26/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER EXISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
CB/VCTS AT BRANSON FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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