Sunday, July 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 250830
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND THEN AGAIN EACH DAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AND AFFECTED THE AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS CONTINUING TO
DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING...AS JUST A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS
ARE LEFT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH ALL
THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND CONTINUES TO STEADILY PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH. THE TRUE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AS IT IS JUST STARTING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. MODERATE
INSATIABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE HAIL RISK. THEREFORE...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

WITH THE WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING
THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH
THE LOST OF DAY TIME HEATING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTH AND WILL RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE
STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE NORTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INCREASED GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE LINGERING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAY RESULT IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CHANGING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT
THE STORM TRACK MAY SHIFT BACK OVER THE REGION PROVIDING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010/

FOR THE 25/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE MOIST AIR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER IFR CEILINGS IN
THE KSGF AND JLN AREAS WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE MORE SATURATED
FROM EVENING RAINS. A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS RIGHT NOW HARD TO
LOCATE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CONTAMINATION...WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE TO THE MO/AR BORDER SUNDAY...AND COULD SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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