Saturday, July 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY SAGGING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT'S NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY. WE DO FEEL AS THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW...THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT MENTION OF RAIN
WITHIN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH WILL MITIGATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT
OF HAND. NO HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS ANY RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE EXPANSION OF THE SUMMERTIME HIGH.

PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
90S. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES AT THE SURFACE. I SUSPECT THAT HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ALL INDICATIONS FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS A
STRONG SUMMERTIME HIGH IN PLACE...CONFINING ALL SURFACE FEATURES
WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE BOTTOM LINE...INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/

FOR THE 31/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEB SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO IA/NORTHERN MO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH...IF ANY...IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CAT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DEEPER CONVECTION/TSTMS ALONG THE
MO/AR BORDER AFTER 18Z WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL
ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE KBBG/BRANSON TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLD/WDLY SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY PRECIP. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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