Friday, June 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 251749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

DESPITE BEING NORTH OF AN ARKANSAS FRONTAL SYSTEM...MOST AREAS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI EXPERIENCED ANOTHER WARM
NIGHT. FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...CONDITIONS WERE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO THIS AREA LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

FOR TODAY...THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHARP INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
DESTABILIZE THE OZARKS AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED...AND VERY HIT AND MISS IN
NATURE...AND MORE FREQUENT ALONG THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER.
THEREFORE NOT ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN TODAY...BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A PRETTY DECENT DOWNPOUR. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN IDEAL AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL (700
- 300 MB) LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL INSERT A BRIEF AND MODEST
MENTION FOR WIND GUSTS IN THIS MORNINGS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IS QUITE DIFFICULT AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS THAT SE KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER
CHANCES AT EXPERIENCING THIS FUTURE MCS.

THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OZARKS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SETTING UP COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT - WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL WELL INTO THE
60S. UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS
WITHIN THE EASTERN OZARKS...SUCH AS SALEM...EMINENCE...ALLEY
SPRING...AND LICKING. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECASTED BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDER
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AT BRANSON AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
THICKER CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWEST AR. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CBS AT
SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN AS CUMULUS STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON VARIETY WITH SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS BY MID EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT BRANSON. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY.

TERRY
&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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