Friday, June 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260448
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

WE ARE SEEING A FEW PULSE STORMS POPPING UP OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...JUST SAW A BRIEF SMALL
SHOWER OVER NORTHWEST CAMDEN COUNTY. LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AROUND -10 AND CAPES PUSHING 4000 J/KG. THE WARM FRONT
ANALYZED OVER NORTHWEST AR/SOUTHEAST KS EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS WEAK. STILL EXPECT TO SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS BEING SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OZARKS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDERS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EACH AFTERNOON. SINCE THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY
MONDAY...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEAT ADVISORIES SINCE WE WILL
LIKELY NOT MEET THE FOUR-DAY 100 TO 105 CRITERIA...OR THE ONE-DAY
105 OR HIGHER FOR THREE HOURS CRITERIA.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE U.S. WILL FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND SHOULD EFFECTIVELY DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A
COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND BRING CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY MAY PUSH BACK INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.

ON A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST NAM OUTPUT IS GENERATING TROPICAL
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KJLN AND KSGF.
KEPT THE TEMPO MVFR GROUP GOING AT KBBG LATE TONIGHT FOR LIGHT
FOG. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY THEN INITIATE MORE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS LOW REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SO MAINTAINED CB
GROUP. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS. ANY STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATER SATURDAY EVENING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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