Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 231524
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1024 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

UPDATE...

NEAR TERM UPDATE...

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WARMING THROUGH THE 80S. THUS FAR TODAY...TRENDS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS JUST A DEGREE OR
SO FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE...SO
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE PER 12Z SGF AND TOP RAOBS.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS SOUTH. AFOREMENTIONED CAP...ALONG WITH RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
PRETTY THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LARGE SCALE FRONTAL
LIFTING IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CINH IN PLACE. THAT BEING
SAID...DO THINK THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A
FEW STRONG STORMS CONSIDERING 2000-2500 J/K OF CAPE AND 20-25 KT
OF BULK SHEAR IN PLACE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-44 CORRIDOR.

BOXELL

&&

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY
THEN WITH THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONT.

CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AFFECTING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION BEING AIDED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AN UPPER JET
STREAK AND SURFACE FRONT. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE CWA WITH 07Z TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA.

FORECAST...ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN OUT TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING. NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS
WERE HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THE FROPA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE NCEP 4KM WRF DOES BREAK OUT A BAND OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND SHIFTING IT ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT DIMINISHES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA (40ISH) AND 25-30 GOING IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA.

FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT. MIXING UP TO 850 GIVES TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TODAY BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 90S ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE SEE A
RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY WIND. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE HOT WEATHER MOVING BACK IN.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TOWARD MIDNIGHT OR AFTER. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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