Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301726
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 201 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

HIGHLIGHTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME...DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/TSTMS...MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DRY ENE SFC FLOW OVER THE REGION. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH FRI. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP
SOMEWHAT OVER MOS GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO DUE TO THE DRIER
THAN NORMAL SOILS AND PLANT MOISTURE IN THAT AREA.

OVERALL THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE
GFS (30/00Z) AND ECMWF (29/12Z). THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN BECOMING ESTABLISHED INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE OZARKS REGION. WHILE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT CONVECTION AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCES WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON AS A PROGGED FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
DSA

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD DECK TO FORM ACROSS THE OZARKS BUT WILL NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FROM 04Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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