Thursday, June 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 241714
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1214 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...RETURNING HEAT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THEN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA AS OF
07Z WITH A POSITION OF NEAR CASSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF SALEM.
FRONT HAS COME THROUGH THE CWA BASICALLY DRY AND A QUICK GLANCE AT
THE DRY 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND PW PLOTS GIVE A PRETTY GOOD REASONING
FOR THIS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST...FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING ML CAPES ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON OF 3000-4000 J/KG SO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM RISK LATER TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MO. WHILE
SHEAR PROFILE IS RATHER WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED STORMS...WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN RISKS
BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. RISK SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

COOLER NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS DIPPING BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY UP
IN CENTRAL MO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE 90S...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH LOW TO MID 90S
BY SATURDAY EVERYWHERE. SATURDAY MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RETURN
TO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE PROLONGED
LIKE THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE AND ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS JUNCTURE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE NEXT FRONT TO DROP
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. AS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
MUCH BETTER WITH THIS NEXT FRONT.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS:

THE WEAK COLD PASSED THROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE OZARKS AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OUT
NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER. BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA
TOMORROW. THE STRATUS DECK WHICH FORMED IN THE COOLER STABLE AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT THIS MORNING AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA BRIEFLY WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY MID
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINTAIN INTO TOMORROW FOR
JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AIRFIELDS BUT INCLUDED THE RISK OF CB IN
BRANSON TAF FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS MORE
AMPLE MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE STALLED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA. A PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN FOG. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF VIS DROPPING INTO IFR FOR A TIME
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... BUT HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY IN MVFR AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
FORM.

COLUCCI/BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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