Monday, June 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281709
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION LINGERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINED DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
GRADUALLY SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE PRIMARY BAND
OF CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR
THIS REASON...A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP TODAY. THERE COULD BE
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER...BUT
EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL END IN ALL LOCATIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE...AS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM INTO THE 80S...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON A NIGHTLY
BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REINFORCE DRY AIR ADVECTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A PATTERN THAT IS
HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING FORWARD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX. MOST OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST LINE LATER THIS WEEK. THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT OFFERS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION BY SUGGESTING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE GFS THEN SHIFTS ALEX'S REMNANTS
STRAIGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE OF MISSOURI...PROVIDING THE REGION
WITH SOME DECENT AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

IT'S IMPORTANT FOR EVERYONE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT CARRIES ALEX'S REMNANTS INTO MISSOURI. MOST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONFINES ALEX'S REMNANTS DEEPER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND
TEXAS. THEREFORE WE WILL NOT FORECAST HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND...UNTIL WE ACQUIRE A BETTER FEEL FOR ALEX'S TRACK.

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH OF THE AERODROMES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL STRATUS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR NORTH TEXAS WILL STREAM OVER THE OZARKS.

ANGLE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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