Thursday, June 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 250452
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010/

RETURN TO HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
STALLED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS UNSTABLE (2000 J/KG OR SO MLCAPE) AND UNCAPPED...THE
LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM HAS THUS FAR PREVENTED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS STILL PLAUSIBLE TO SEE A FEW PULSE UPDRAFTS GO
UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO THROUGH MID EVENING...THOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL EFFECTIVELY WASH OUT
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP. ANOTHER BOUT OF WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS IS ON TAP. POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO PULSE UPDRAFTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
TOUGH TO COME BY.

MED RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AN OMEGA
PATTERN WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH TROUGHING OVER
EACH COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS
CONTINUITY WITH KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ADVECT A DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AS ANY EASTWARD SHIFT
WILL LEAD TO A QUICKER WARM UP.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

LIGHT FOG AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AROUND
KBBG. DID INCREASE VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREADS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KJLN AND KSGF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. KEPT PREVAILING CB
GROUPS IN TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR TEMPO OR PREVAILING THUNDER.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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