Friday, June 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 251054
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010/
DESPITE BEING NORTH OF AN ARKANSAS FRONTAL SYSTEM...MOST AREAS
OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI EXPERIENCED ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT. FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...CONDITIONS WERE MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO THIS AREA LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

FOR TODAY...THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHARP INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
DESTABILIZE THE OZARKS AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED...AND VERY HIT AND MISS IN
NATURE...AND MORE FREQUENT ALONG THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER.
THEREFORE NOT ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN TODAY...BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A PRETTY DECENT DOWNPOUR. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN IDEAL AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL (700
- 300 MB) LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL INSERT A BRIEF AND MODEST
MENTION FOR WIND GUSTS IN THIS MORNINGS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IS QUITE DIFFICULT AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS THAT SE KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER
CHANCES AT EXPERIENCING THIS FUTURE MCS.

THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OZARKS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SETTING UP COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT - WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL WELL INTO THE
60S. UPPER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS
WITHIN THE EASTERN OZARKS...SUCH AS SALEM...EMINENCE...ALLEY
SPRING...AND LICKING. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECASTED BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010/

FOR THE 25/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS SOME CLOUDS...LOWER BROKEN VFR
CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AT TIMES
AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL WSW-SW FLOW ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION MAY SET OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND AREAL PLACEMENT OF TSTMS IS
STILL IN FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
CB/CUMULONIMBUS DESIGNATOR IN THE TAFS AFTER 19Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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