Sunday, June 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271154
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN KANSAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
OZARKS...ALL WAS QUIET AS OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WERE BALMY IN
NATURE. EARLY MORNING READINGS STRUGGLED TO COOL OUT OF THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE.

EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS. I THINK THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN A WHILE...AS MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH THIS IN MIND...I DECIDED TO JACK POPS
UP...AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN THE GRIDS. HEAVY
RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VALUES OF PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

RAIN SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS
NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE. AN AIRMASS CONTAINING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WELCOMED INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LESS
HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING CONDITIONS MORE IDEAL FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AT
TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE
OBSERVED IN MOST OTHER AREAS ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE
AT BAY. TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
SHUT DOWN ANY POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE NATIONS
MID SECTION.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

FOR THE 27/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/BBG TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NW MO INTO EASTERN KS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LIKE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER
TSTMS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. WHILE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSTMS WILL OCCUR...TIMING
AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HANDLE WITH VCTS AND CB/CUMULONIMBUS DESIGNATORS. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION VEERING THE WIND TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER 28/00Z. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER POST FRONTAL MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES MOISTENED BY RAIN/TSTMS. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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