Monday, June 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290442
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

NOTHING IN THE WAY OF FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING TAKES HOLD ALOFT. THIS RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTHEAST VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN MIND...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY NIL. COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
RANGE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A BROAD RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ALEX MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ALEX.

THUS FAR...MODELS SEEM TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH THIS
MORNINGS 12Z GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND HWRF...ALL PREVIOUS GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE RUNS TAKING IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...AND AT THIS POINT...ITS DIFFICULT TO HANG MY HAT ON EITHER
ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REALITY OF THE
SITUATION IS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL-OR-NOTHING
SITUATION...IF ALEX MAINTAINS THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE WE WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. CONVERSELY...IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FAVORED...THEN A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 OR
SO HOURS...AND ALONG WITH IT A FIRMER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WEATHER.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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