Sunday, June 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM WESTERN
KANSAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
OZARKS...ALL WAS QUIET AS OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WERE BALMY IN NATURE.
EARLY MORNING READINGS STRUGGLED TO COOL OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE.

EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS. I THINK THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN A WHILE...AS MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MEASUREABLE PRECIP. WITH THIS IN MIND...I DECIDED TO JACK POPS
UP...AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN THE GRIDS. HEAVY
RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VALUES OF PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

RAIN SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS
NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE. AN AIRMASS CONTAINING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WELCOMED INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LESS
HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING CONDITIONS MORE IDEAL FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AT
TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE
OBSERVED IN MOST OTHER AREAS ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE
AT BAY. TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
SHUT DOWN ANY POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE NATIONS
MID SECTION.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO ONLY
INCLUDE PREVAILING CB AT KSGF AND KBBG. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
COMPLICATED ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME LEFT OVER ACTIVITY EARLY IN
THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THERE IS THEN SOME POTENTIAL
THAT A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
COULD AFFECT THE AERODROMES IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST SUNDAY
EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO INCLUDED VCTS.
OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED CB MENTION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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