Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 221725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH THE CONTINUED
HEAT ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AS OF 07Z. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH CLOSEST ONE
UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS BEING FUELED BY LOW LEVEL JET IN CENTRAL PLAINS OF
35 TO 40 KTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.

FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI WHICH OVERLAYS NICELY WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST 14 DAY PERIOD. VIH/AIZ HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DONT SEE ANY REASON TO
STRAY FROM THIS FOR TODAY AND HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THIS SHOULD BRING MOST AREAS ABOVE 100 DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX AND WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THE AREA CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL EVEN BE STRONGER TONIGHT. AGAIN EXPECTING NIGHTTIME
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO REMAIN NORTH OF CWA.

AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS PAINT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF WITH THE FRONT AS BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH AROUND 30 POPS AND KEEP
QPF ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THURSDAYS
TEMPERATURES A BIT BEHIND FRONT FROM INHERITED GRIDS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010/

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND LIKELY BEYOND. DIURNAL CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...THOUGH WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THE SPATIAL
EXTENT OF CU WILL BE LOWER VERSUS YESTERDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT JLN LATE TONIGHT.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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