Thursday, June 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 241136
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

..AVIATION UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...RETURNING HEAT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THEN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA AS OF
07Z WITH A POSITION OF NEAR CASSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF SALEM.
FRONT HAS COME THROUGH THE CWA BASICALLY DRY AND A QUICK GLANCE AT
THE DRY 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND PW PLOTS GIVE A PRETTY GOOD REASONING
FOR THIS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST...FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING ML CAPES ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON OF 3000-4000 J/KG SO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM RISK LATER TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MO. WHILE
SHEAR PROFILE IS RATHER WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED STORMS...WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN RISKS
BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. RISK SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

COOLER NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS DIPPING BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY UP
IN CENTRAL MO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE 90S...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH LOW TO MID 90S
BY SATURDAY EVERYWHERE. SATURDAY MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RETURN
TO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE PROLONGED
LIKE THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE AND ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS JUNCTURE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE NEXT FRONT TO DROP
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. AS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
MUCH BETTER WITH THIS NEXT FRONT.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONE EXCEPTION
COULD BE THE BRANSON AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE BRANSON AIRPORT WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES IF A STORM WERE TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AIRFIELD.

A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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