Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 230742
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY
THEN WITH THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONT.

CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AFFECTING THE UPPER MISSISSIPI
VALLEY REGION BEING AIDED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AN UPPER JET
STREAK AND SURFACE FRONT. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE CWA WITH 07Z TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA.

FORECAST...ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN OUT TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING. NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS
WERE HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THE FROPA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE NCEP 4KM WRF DOES BREAK OUT A BAND OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND SHIFTING IT ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT DIMINISHES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA (40ISH) AND 25-30 GOING IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA.

FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT. MIXING UP TO 850 GIVES TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TODAY BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 90S ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WE SEE A
RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY WIND. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE HOT WEATHER MOVING BACK IN.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010/

FOR THE 23/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE 06Z TAFS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PRODUCE CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL HEATING BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AND AN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD AFTER 23/14Z. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
CB/CUMULONIMBUS DESIGNATOR AT KJLN/KSGF AFTER 24/00Z. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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