Saturday, June 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 262332
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 217 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010/

TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

REMNANT BOUNDARY OVERRUN BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN BEST AT THE
700MB LEVEL CONTINUES TO INSTIGATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WHERE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE
FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER PULSE UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER. STILL
THE OUTSIDE RISK OF A DOWNBURST OR TWO...MORE LIKELY WITH THE MORE
ISOLATED PULSE STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK IS LOW. COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL WANE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH AREAS BENEATH
THE LINGERING SHORTWAVE WILL BE PRONE TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT...EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST VERY WARM/HUMID DAY FOR A BIT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEGREES. OVERALL LACK OF A CAP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE TO LINGER EVEN FURTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS
A LIMITED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIFT. IT
APPEARS THAT SHEAR WILL BE LACKING...OR AT LEAST NOT TIMED
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA HEADING INTO MONDAY...AS
A RESULT HAVE LINGERED DECENT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO. WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE MORE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MORE PLEASANT WORK WEEK.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...

MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE QUITE GOOD FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH A
CONSENSUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO FEED THE OZARKS WITH
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT IS COOLER AND DRIER THAN CONDITIONS THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. WHILE THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDING THE SYSTEM
WELL...FELT THAT THE DROP OFF OF DEWPOINTS LATER IN THE WEEK WAS
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE BY SOME OF THE MODELS WHICH WERE HINTING AT
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S AND BELOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALONG WITH SLOW MOISTURE RETURN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD...THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT
COULD HELP DEVELOP MCS ACTIVITY INITIALIZING OVER KANSAS AND
TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT
FOR PRECIP FRIDAY OR SATURDAY SINCE IT IS SO FAR AWAY...SO HAVE
LEFT IT FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO DECIDE.

CCC

&&

AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DISSIPATED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MAIN CB MENTION AT KBBG EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. NEXT
IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL THEN BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS JET AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO KICK OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO...SO JUST INCLUDED CB MENTION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECAYING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT...CARRIED A
CB GROUP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KJLN AND KSGF.
ANY ACTIVITY AROUND KBBG SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY STARTING AROUND MID MORNING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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