Thursday, May 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION (AT BEST) AFFECTED THE CWFA
ON WED...AND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TODAY. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...CAN'T RULE AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM AND VERY
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HVY RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL THE
EASTERN CWFA WILL BE FAVORED WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES. SLIGHTLY BETTER...BUT STILL MEAGER...MID LEVEL WINDS MAY
ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO STAY TOGETHER A LITTLE LONGER...BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED WITH PULSE TYPE STORMS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED WEST BACK OVER THE
PLAINS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RISES AND A DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR FRI/SAT. SHOULD BE A NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE...SOUTH
THEN SSW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TN FRI...THEN INTO MS/AL
SAT/SUNDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR
PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWFA SAT (VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
DRY AIR MASS) AND SUNDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS
FOR EASTERN CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEAST....AS THE
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS
OUT. THE TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS 0N SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN/TSTM
CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE REST
OF THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY MON.

BEYOND MON...THE WEAK FRONT MAY HANG UP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON TUE...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SMALL POPS LOOKS
WARRANTED. OVERALL...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AND PICKING OUT OR TIMING ANY SFC
FEATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED FCST IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...NOT AS MUCH RAIN WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RESULT FOG WILL BE MUCH PATCHIER THIS
MORNING. JLN/SGF/BBG MAY FLIRT BRIEFLY WITH MVFR VIS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF WEDNESDAY. LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CU WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE...BUT SETTLE ON A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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